All 3 have had recent disruptions that required rethinking their future. And wins went to those good at Scenario Planning.

This podcast overviews how Spark Partners scenario, planning even before the pandemic, predicted that crypto-currencies would face a difficult reckoning in the future.  

That there was enormous risk, with limited upside, for gambling in tokens controlled by unregulated crypto “banks” like FTX, Binance and Coinbase.  Good scenario planning said “stay back.”  Now FTX is gone and both Binance and Coinbase are under investigation for illegal activity with the leadership of all 3 are facing likely jail time.

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We were able to predict the ongoing decline of CNN by observing leaderships’ decisions to pull back investment from growth projects, like CNN+, undertake drastic cost cutting and then try to create success with outdated approaches like morning programming.  The backgrounds of those leaders, and early decisions, created most likely scenarios that things would go very bad at CNN.  And now the CEO has been fired.

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Looking forward, the PGA is “merging” with LIV Golf.  The details are unclear.  But we explain how looking at the entities, their leaders and previous actions, as well as trends, give us some keen insight as to the future of professional golf.  As we lay out the future scenario, we make some predictions for significant change.

Thinking points:

• Do you use scenario planning in your business?
• Do you look at the backgrounds of your leaders and competitive leaders then use those to help predict their decisions?
• Do you use trends to identify the decisions which will go well, adding growth, and those likely to fail?
• Do you follow the information to make forecasts, and then use those predictions to make decisions?

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