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Trendcasting – How to Build Better Scenarios

Adam Hartung, Manny Teran
France, Trends, Innovation, Gig Economy, Electrification, government, government regulations, Europe

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Manny’s back from France, and in this podcast we discuss the difference in adoption rates of various trends in France versus the USA.  Work from Home, Gig economy, electrification of the auto fleet – we cover a lot of ground about the differences.  Doing so we discuss how local issues affect trends, as well as regulations.  The big trends apply, but when scenario planning we have to look at a lot of factors to develop accurate scenarios around adoption rates.

Additionally, we overview how easy it is for leaders to project scenarios based upon the past, and the existing situation, rather than looking at how things can change.  Often leaders overlook rapid changes in customer behavior, as well as rapid innovation overcoming obstacles to change.  We dig into how easy it is to use historical statistics on energy and fossil fuels, for example, to predict limited change – amidst a radical adoption rate for renewables and changing auto fleets.

Thinking points:

• Do you have a scenario that describes impact on your business of AI, mobility, asynchronous work streams (like work from home,) and gig workers?

• Have you developed your scenarios to include the impact of regulations, developing innovations, and local adoption factors?

• Are you pulling data from forecasters for scenario planning, or using historical data?

• Do you pre-ordain your scenario then seek to justify it, or let the trends lead you to scenarios you might not have considered?