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The Future of Electricity – How To Effectively Scenario Plan

Manny Teran, Adam Hartung
Free electricity, Planning, Renewable, Sustainable Energy, Electric, Future forecasting

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In the future electricity will be free.  How’s that for a forecast?  Adam made over 200 forecasts for Forbes mag, and when he stopped writing all 200 were proven accurate.  This podcast explains how to do good scenario planning using the electric utility industry as an example.

Demand is going up.  But supply is challenged by the technology transition from fossil fuels to sustainables.  Will the industry be able to meet demand with solar and wind alone?  Or will new nuclear plants be needed?  This podcast goes step by step through how analyzing demand and supply leads to identifying roadblocks to growth, then understanding how those roadblocks can be overcome – like battery technology.  How to look at leading edge trends, and use of new technologies to solve imbalances – like using advanced reconductoring to enhance transmission.  And how to predict changes in not only customer behavior but regulations that look like roadblocks but can overnight provide major impetus to change – like the new FERC planning rules that will promote grid development.

Thinking points:

  • Are you planning for the future, or planning from the past?
  • Do you stop planning when you see obstacles and roadblocks, or do you explore creative solutions to those roadblocks?
  • Do you know who the leading edge players are, and do you track what they do – successes and failures?
  • Do you rethink how to analyze economics – rethink the business model – to understand what looks uneconomic at first could become very economical in an altered future?