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Scenario Planning & Ukraine Invasion - Time to Change Your Globalization Trend Projection

Adam Hartung, Manny Teran
ukraine, trends, war, disruption, globalization

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For nearly 60 years there has been a universal trend toward greater international trade.  We called this trend Globalization.  This trend increased exports from America, and dramatically increased imports as American companies sourced from other countries.  Everything from manufacturing to assembly to computer coding to security tracking to customer service and much more was outsourced and off-shored during this increasing Globalization of Trade trend.

But now Russia has invaded Ukraine, and the trust basis on which Globalization was built has been seriously damaged.  At level 1 any business sourcing anything from Russia, Ukraine or Eastern Europe now must implement extra security and alternative sourcing plans.  At level 2, we're seeing the shift of Chinese aggression, including bases being built in the South China Sea and overt threats toward invading Taiwan as examples of killing trust between trading partners.  Certainly China's domineering takeover of Hong Kong is an example of greater nationalism reducing globalization.  Duterte's strong-man government in the Philippines is another example of leaders taking actions that put globalization at risk.  Even the Brexit effort in the UK was anti-Globallization.  Thus, all international supply chain or sales relationships have to be evaluated for a greater level of mistrust and business interruption.

This podcast explains how Trendcasting as the basis for scenario planning prepares companies for disruptions - by understanding the impact of trends.  Learn  how when a trend takes a different speed of adoption - or is highly disrupted - it is faster and easier to modify future scenarios and implement plans based on those scenarios if you've developed them.  Today all businesses are impacted by the long-term Globalization Trend, and the major shift now happening to this trend will thus affect every business.  Whether it creates threats or opportunities to your business depends on how well you've created, and now modify, your future scenarios.