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Peloton, Work From Home, Immigration, Microsoft Gaming, Bitcoin - Today's Winners and Losers are Based on Understanding Pandemic Trends

Adam Hartung, Manny Teran
market shifts, covid-19, trends

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Market changing events are not linear. Small incremental changes, driven by internal improvements, do not change markets. Markets shift when external events cause a "Punctuated Equilibrium" that forces us to adapt to emerging trends rapidly.  The COVID pandemic was just such an external event that punctuated the old ways of doing business and ushered in new ways of doing business, accelerating trends.  This podcast explains how we can understand the winners (and losers) before the pandemic punctuation, during the big shift, and what we can expect as we enter the new post-punctuation competitive era.

Peloton mistakenly assumed the punctuation was the new equilibrium and didn't do enough to change its model.  As the punctuation has moved to a new equilibrium we are being forced to rethink how we work, and our approach to immigration during the "Great Resignation" in a high growth economy.  Winners are recognizing how trends in Mobility, Asynchronous Work, AI and Gig Economy have created enormous new opportunities - as demonstrated by Microsoft's shift away from PCs and into big Gaming investments.  This podcast explains how understanding punctuated equilibrium helps you identify new opportunities and make better investment decisions during this time of low interest rates.

Thinking Points:

  • Can you recognize how the 4 pandemic accelerated trends have changed, and will continue to change your market?
  • Are you tracking external events, including current events, to identify how market shifts are creating new opportunities?
  • Are you planning for a post-punctuated (post-pandemic) market? Or are you still stuck in pandemic punctuation without a plan?
  • Are you ready to bet big on future scenarios so you can participate in "the next big thing?"