We all like to do what’s easy. Studying trends, and evaluating their impact, is not easy – especially when looking at threats as well as possibilities.  It’s a lot easier to just hope the future will be like the past – but is hope really a strategy?  

This podcast explains when you don’t study trends and plan for them you end up like millions of Floridians now without power, and homes.  It was entirely predictable that Florida was going to be hit with more hurricanes, and they would be larger and more powerful. The climatologists have been telling us that for 2 decades.  But it was easier to pretend this wasn’t really a trend than to deal with it.  So Florida didn’t deal with it. And the consequences are horrendous.

Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005 – 17 years ago – and New Orleans still hasn’t recovered.  Sandy hit New Jersey in 2012, and not only has the shore not fully recovered but efforts to harden infrastructure for the next hit have been stymied.  Harvey hit Houston in 2017, killing over 60 and $125B in damages.  Do you see a trend?  Ian is just another hurricane in what is a different world, due to climate change.  If you ignore it, you are taking the risks that Floridians took.  They didn’t tax themselves to harden their infrastructure, or even their developments, to prepare for the inevitable.  And it will happen again.  And again.

You MUST avoid falling into denier status.  You MUST look at trends. And you MUST prepare.  From supply chain interruptions to the great recession to quiet quitters to inflation and higher interest rates – these trends are like climate change and demographics.  You can understand them and prepare for them, or you can end up in the eye of the hurricane.

Thinking points:

• Do you evaluate where you live for threats?  Are you stuck in a spot, and always rebuilding, or moving to a better location?

• Do you consider how a trend can lead to eliminating your entire business (like Ian eliminated so many homes)?

• If an ounce of investment is worth a pound of cure, where are you investing  your ounces?

• Do you know the trigger events that will cause a punctuated equilibrium and threaten the existence of  your business – or home – or family?

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