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Forecasting for 2023 – Inflation, Interest Rates, and Home Values

Adam Hartung, Manny Teran
Inflation, interest rates, mortgage rates, trends, innovation, trendcasting, forecasting, 2023

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In 2022 Federal Funds rate went from 0% to 4.25% in just 7 months.  An unprecedented jump in rates – but it started from an equally unprecedented base of 0%.  Looking back 100 years there was only one time when interest rates were below 1% - and that was during 2010-2022.  Can you recognize that the 2010’s and pandemic were the aberration, not the norm?  In this podcast we look at long-term economic trends, and demographic trends, to forecast what is almost surely going to be inflation and interest rates in 2024 and beyond.

Too often when planning we look at headlines, which are the shortest of short-term indicators.  Especially in the modern world where headlines are hyped aggressively seeking eyeballs.  News is no longer daily – like the old newspapers – but rather minute by minute with social media competing with traditional media for readers & viewers in order to sell ads.  This has led to hyped information, presenting the short-term seem unique and world changing – even when it is not.  This podcast explains how to look past the hype to forecast accurately, and position your business (and life) to grow even if inflation and interest rates are higher than the last decade.

Thinking points:

• Do you use long data series when identifying trends, or are you biased by short-term datapoints?

• Can you recognize when a punctuated equilibrium changes the data series permanently, or not?

• Do you plan based upon long-term trends like economic growth and demographics, or short-term trends like technology and fads?

• Are you able to invest in trends even when those around you are scared to commit?