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Can You Recognize a Marketplace Tipping Point?

Manny Teran, Adam Hartung
EV's, USA, Mainstream, regulators, developers, commercial real estate, residential real estate, marketplace tipping points, population age groups

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Are EV’s still a long time away from becoming mainstream?  Will regulators and developers take action any time soon to correct the imbalance in commercial real estate vs residential?  Is the aging demographic in  the USA – and elsewhere – really going to matter in the short-term?  How you answer these questions depends quite a bit on your understanding of marketplace tipping points.

Most people think a tipping point happens when over half the market switches to someething new. This podcast explains that tipping points happen far, far earlier.  A tipping point occurs when it becomes inevitable that the new solution will displace the old solution.  And in most markets this happens when just 5% to 9% of the market has made the switch.  Much earlier than most business people think, leading to late attempts to transition – and most of the time very poor results.

Listen to how current sales of EVs, the early moves of city planners and the already “upside down” population age groups all indicate tipping points that are already impacting markets, and offering opportunities for early adopters to outpace the competition now.

Thinking points:

  • When you see a trend, do you track it early for adoption rate confirmation?
  • Do you consider yourself an early adopter and “first mover”?
  • Are you incorporating these 3 trends, already cemented in place, into your plans for 2024?
  • Are you watching competitors (in-kind and fringe) to see who’s promoting new solutions?