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Assumptions Bias - Don't Trust your Gut

Adam Hartung, Manny Teran
Bias, assumptions

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We all have assumptions. We wouldn’t get anything done if we didn’t have assumptions. Built on facts, assumptions help us to focus on new problems rather than constantly resolving old problems.  Only….. the world changes.  The situational facts change. And assumptions become out of date.  When that happens we make bad decisions, because when we get the assumptions wrong everything goes wrong.  

This podcast overviews how “conventional wisdom” and “gut instinct” are the villains of our business story.  We feel comfortable with them, but they are often wrong. Especially in our modern world where innovations and change happens so fast that the conventional is most often wrong, and our guts are out of synch with what customers want. Thus we have to constantly work to move beyond our old assumptions to update them and in order to make better decisions.

Listen as we explore the assumptions that drove outsourcing and the resultant growth of China, and how those assumptions are now wildly out of date with significant repercussions for all businesses – regardless industry or size.  Listen to how assumptions about the workforce are now wildly out of date, with deep implications for all companies.  Listen to how we must challenge our assumptions about our business models, our workforce and even how we educate and train people if we want any chance of success.

Thinking points:

  • Do you know the major assumptions underlying your business model?
  • Do you know the implications on your business of big global changes, like currently happening in China?
  • Are you open to developing new business models based on entirely new economics driven by external change?
  • What are you going to do when you simply can’t hire ANYONE to do that old job?